Mantic just raised $25m after beating every human forecaster in the metaculus cup. prediction…
mantic just raised $25m after beating every human forecaster in the metaculus cup. prediction markets were supposed to be the one place humans kept their edge, and a london startup just took the trophy backed by microsoft's m12 and thinking machines lab.
generation was the demo; prediction is the product.
Context
Mantic's blog post of 18 September 2026 announces a 25 million dollar raise led by Radical Ventures, with Balderton, Thinking Machines, DRW, FT Ventures, M12, Episode 1, Charlie Songhurst and Thomas Wolf. It says that this summer, for the first time, Mantic beat all 676 human participants, including professional forecasters, in the Metaculus Cup, and beat other AI startups and frontier models run on a standard harness provided by the organisers.
The competition result is Mantic's own claim and no Metaculus results were read. Beating every human forecaster means the 676 participants in that Cup, not all humans or prediction markets, and the blog does not mention prediction markets. No valuation is stated. Took the trophy is not in the text read, and whether a prize was awarded was not found. Prediction markets being where humans kept their edge, and generation being the demo, are the author's opinion.
Watch next
- Metaculus's own season results.
Sources
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 19 September 2026 at 05:16 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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