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The contrail is now being asked to file its own climate note

Yethikrishna ROriginal on Threads

the contrail is now being asked to file its own climate note: an ai trial over the north atlantic now routes flights around formation zones in the window that causes about five percent of global contrail warming, a fleet wide system from google and cathay pacific merges satellite images and weather models to predict supersaturated layers, and an eu project trains satellite recognition to classify contrails across seasons and times of day.

the sky now files its own trail ledger.

Context

The North Atlantic trial is Operation Blue Skies. The University of Cambridge describes it as a 5 million pound, 30-month programme, partly funded by 2.65 million pounds from the Department for Transport, with two operational trials in the winter months across NATS-controlled Shanwick oceanic airspace, the eastern half of the North Atlantic corridor. It says atmospheric modelling puts Shanwick at approximately 5% of global contrail warming, with a large share in the winter window from November to February, which is the window the note refers to.

The fleet system is Google's contrail work. Google's research page describes a machine learning Contrail Likely Zone model, a deep neural network that takes weather features and is trained on satellite contrail detections. Cathay Pacific's announcement of 7 September 2026 says its partnership with Google combines AI predictive models, satellite imagery detection and weather data to forecast contrail-forming zones, and that Cathay is the first airline to test avoidance on ultra-long-haul flights. The EU project is E-CONTRAIL, which the European Commission's CORDIS page describes as using satellite imagery and an artificial neural network to study contrails and aviation-induced cloudiness.

How it compares

The note says the trial window causes about five percent of global contrail warming. Cambridge states the figure for the Shanwick airspace as approximately 5% of global contrail warming, and the BBC repeats it, so the five percent belongs to that airspace, found in modelling, not to the winter window alone. Google's own Asia-Pacific post reports early trials over 80 flights with a roughly 40% estimated reduction in contrail warming impact. That is a Google-reported estimate from its own trials and is a different result from the North Atlantic trial, which had not reported results in the sources read. The note's line about a fleet wide system is the author's summary of the Google and Cathay Pacific partnership.

Related work

Watch next

  • Operation Blue Skies results once the winter trials finish. Google's Cathay Pacific trial results once published beyond the early 80-flight estimate. E-CONTRAIL 2 outputs.

Sources

  1. Operation Blue Skies takes off: landmark trial to test AI-driven contrail avoidance (University of Cambridge)cam.ac.uk
  2. AI to help planes avoid climate-warming 'sky graffiti' (BBC News)bbc.com
  3. Operation Blue Skies: Reducing aviation climate impact (Google Research)blog.google
  4. Cathay Pacific and Google Partner to Research and Trial AI-powered Contrail Avoidance (Cathay Pacific)news.cathaypacific.com
  5. Our new contrail avoidance trial in Asia-Pacific (Google Research)blog.google
  6. Artificial Neural Networks for the Prediction of Contrails and Aviation Induced Cloudiness, E-CONTRAIL (CORDIS)cordis.europa.eu
  7. Making Contrails Visible: E-CONTRAIL policy brief (SESAR)sesar.eu

Provenance

The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 4 October 2026 at 13:41 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.

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