The gpu shortage narrative is over in the spot market. h100 spot pricing fell 42% year over year to…
the gpu shortage narrative is over in the spot market. h100 spot pricing fell 42% year over year to $18.50 an hour and the h200 dropped 50% by september 13, yet nebius raised on-demand rates up to 21% on september 17.
the surplus shows up on the resale floor, not the bill.
Context
The Inference, 18 September 2026, reports Nebius raising on-demand GPU rates 17 to 21 percent from 1 October: H100 from 3.85 to 4.50 dollars per GPU-hour, H200 from 4.50 to 5.40, B200 from 7.15 to 8.50 and B300 to 9.50, up 21 percent. GPU price index pages seen as snippets put H100 between 2.75 and 3.70 dollars per GPU-hour on different bases.
Only the Nebius increase is grounded, and it takes effect on 1 October, so September 17 is at best an announcement date that was not read. The 18.50 dollars an hour, 42 percent year over year and H200 down 50 percent by 13 September were not found in any source read, and the basis (per GPU, per eight-GPU node, spot or on-demand) is not established; the indexes seen are a different measure. The shortage is over is a thesis, and a snippet from 21 September reports a rental crunch in Korea, a different market. The surplus shows up on the resale floor, not the bill is the author's take.
Watch next
- The source of the 42 and 50 percent figures and the Nebius notice date.
Sources
Provenance
The note above is reproduced unedited from the original post, first published on Threads on 20 September 2026 at 23:33 IST. Sources are the papers and datasets the note draws on.
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